The 2026 Outlook: The 'No Guessing' Rule
Most portfolio updates are a diary of feelings. This is a breakdown of mechanics. I am positioning for 2026 using an Implied Total Return framework that ignores price targets in favour of Owner Earnings and Structural Alpha.
Most experts guess where stock prices will go. They call it a "Target." I call it guessing.
In medicine, guessing hurts patients. In finance, guessing hurts your wallet.
For 2026, I am not guessing. I track high-quality businesses like Sectra and Linde constantly, but I only buy when the price makes sense.
I use a simple rule: I do not care how good the company is. I care what the business pays me.
The Formula
I only buy a stock if the math works today. I do not count on "hype" to make money later.
My Return = Cash I Get Now + Growth I Get Later
- Cash I Get Now: Dividends and Buybacks (Cash the company hands back to me).
- Growth I Get Later: How fast the earnings are growing.
If those two numbers don't add up to 10% or more, I do not buy.
🔒 Unlock the Portfolio
The full list below includes:
- The 5 Stocks that passed this strict math test for my 2026 Portfolio.
- The Data: Real numbers from FactSet and Morningstar (no guesswork).
- The Thesis: Why I bought them.
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